UK Covid death toll
(01-19-2021, 10:29 AM)baggy1 Wrote: I had given some thought and decided to start with positive news from now on with delivery of the vaccine but having seen the figures for week 1 I have decided that there is still a big message of caution to put out there.

Week 1 (to the 8th January) 2021 figures for E&W are in and unfortunately there is a massive increase in deaths compared to normal. The 5YA figure for week is 12,175 which is pretty high compared to the rest of the year as January always has the highest figures, however the deaths for week 1 2021 are 17,751 which is 45% above normal - now an amount of that might be due to a bank holiday that would normally be in week one and isn't this year but that would only account for less than 10%. This is the biggest excess death figure since April, there were only 5 bigger excess death weeks in all of the covid time and only 4 weeks with bigger numbers overall.

Hospitalisations are also still going up but it is definitely slowing down, for all of the lockdown skeptics these figures should finally shut them up (it won't) because in the UK we simply haven't managed the virus at all. I hear that we now have the worst deaths per population than anywhere now.

Also, and this is something that needs to be explored further but I have family members who have now got covid for the second time, which raises a big question around herd immunity. They are a family that have kids in school, older kids at work, the kids travel between parents who both have partners that come and go and the older kids move between their family and the boyfriends families. 

OK onto the good news that I planned to start with, the vaccine roll out - credit where it is due there is a big effort going on with a mass vaccination centre both locally and at millennium point. Really well done for getting that going to the government. In the UK as of 17th Jan there were over 4m have had their 1st dose and 400k had their second dose, and although it doesn't work like this that is the equivalent of all the over 80s having the 1st jab with about 30% of the over 75s done, with the equivalent of all 75% of the over 90s getting both jabs.

I think the above news means that we really have to stay vigilant for the next few months until we can start to live a normal life again.

This seems to be very much dependant on where you live - my area (havant) is now vaccinating over 70s and I have my first jab on Friday  Smile
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(01-19-2021, 10:29 AM)baggy1 Wrote: I think the above news means that we really have to stay vigilant for the next few months until we can start to live a normal life again.

I agree, and when our turn to be vaccinated rolls around we need to remember to carry on with the mask/distancing/sanitising regime for quite some time afterwards and not be lured into thinking it's suddenly behind us.
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baggy1 Wrote:I had given some thought and decided to start with positive news from now on with delivery of the vaccine but having seen the figures for week 1 I have decided that there is still a big message of caution to put out there.

Week 1 (to the 8th January) 2021 figures for E&W are in and unfortunately there is a massive increase in deaths compared to normal. The 5YA figure for week is 12,175 which is pretty high compared to the rest of the year as January always has the highest figures, however the deaths for week 1 2021 are 17,751 which is 45% above normal - now an amount of that might be due to a bank holiday that would normally be in week one and isn't this year but that would only account for less than 10%. This is the biggest excess death figure since April, there were only 5 bigger excess death weeks in all of the covid time and only 4 weeks with bigger numbers overall.

Hospitalisations are also still going up but it is definitely slowing down, for all of the lockdown skeptics these figures should finally shut them up (it won't) because in the UK we simply haven't managed the virus at all. I hear that we now have the worst deaths per population than anywhere now.

Also, and this is something that needs to be explored further but I have family members who have now got covid for the second time, which raises a big question around herd immunity. They are a family that have kids in school, older kids at work, the kids travel between parents who both have partners that come and go and the older kids move between their family and the boyfriends families. 

OK onto the good news that I planned to start with, the vaccine roll out - credit where it is due there is a big effort going on with a mass vaccination centre both locally and at millennium point. Really well done for getting that going to the government. In the UK as of 17th Jan there were over 4m have had their 1st dose and 400k had their second dose, and although it doesn't work like this that is the equivalent of all the over 80s having the 1st jab with about 30% of the over 75s done, with the equivalent of all 75% of the over 90s getting both jabs.

I think the above news means that we really have to stay vigilant for the next few months until we can start to live a normal life again.

Best wishes to your family members that are suffering Covid for a second time. Are their symptoms as bad 2nd time around? I hope they recover quickly.  This is very disappointing news.  Let's face it, we are all hoping there will be some form of immunity after contracting the virus, however long or short a time it is. The fact is that of the millions worldwide that have now had the illness, there are not that many that have apparently had it twice so I will take some hope from that.
2nd Point highlighted. I suppose, having slammed the government plenty we ought to give them credit for the speed at which they have rolled out the vaccinations. Unfortunately, the first thing that jumps into my head is that the praise realistically should go to the NHS. The second thing I think of is wouldn't it have been much better to let them handle the track and trace programme too? Maybe it's just that £12Billion that keeps bugging me.
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Sky News asks Frank Spencer...

“Can we finally dispel the idea schools are safe?”

Gavin Williamson “Schools are a safe environment to be in”

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson claims that a month ago no one would have expected that all schools would be closed right now

The only person I know who would agree is Proth

[Image: gavin-spencer.jpg]
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(01-19-2021, 04:44 PM)Tom Joad Wrote:
baggy1 Wrote:I had given some thought and decided to start with positive news from now on with delivery of the vaccine but having seen the figures for week 1 I have decided that there is still a big message of caution to put out there.

Week 1 (to the 8th January) 2021 figures for E&W are in and unfortunately there is a massive increase in deaths compared to normal. The 5YA figure for week is 12,175 which is pretty high compared to the rest of the year as January always has the highest figures, however the deaths for week 1 2021 are 17,751 which is 45% above normal - now an amount of that might be due to a bank holiday that would normally be in week one and isn't this year but that would only account for less than 10%. This is the biggest excess death figure since April, there were only 5 bigger excess death weeks in all of the covid time and only 4 weeks with bigger numbers overall.

Hospitalisations are also still going up but it is definitely slowing down, for all of the lockdown skeptics these figures should finally shut them up (it won't) because in the UK we simply haven't managed the virus at all. I hear that we now have the worst deaths per population than anywhere now.

Also, and this is something that needs to be explored further but I have family members who have now got covid for the second time, which raises a big question around herd immunity. They are a family that have kids in school, older kids at work, the kids travel between parents who both have partners that come and go and the older kids move between their family and the boyfriends families. 

OK onto the good news that I planned to start with, the vaccine roll out - credit where it is due there is a big effort going on with a mass vaccination centre both locally and at millennium point. Really well done for getting that going to the government. In the UK as of 17th Jan there were over 4m have had their 1st dose and 400k had their second dose, and although it doesn't work like this that is the equivalent of all the over 80s having the 1st jab with about 30% of the over 75s done, with the equivalent of all 75% of the over 90s getting both jabs.

I think the above news means that we really have to stay vigilant for the next few months until we can start to live a normal life again.

Best wishes to your family members that are suffering Covid for a second time. Are their symptoms as bad 2nd time around? I hope they recover quickly.  This is very disappointing news.  Let's face it, we are all hoping there will be some form of immunity after contracting the virus, however long or short a time it is. The fact is that of the millions worldwide that have now had the illness, there are not that many that have apparently had it twice so I will take some hope from that.
2nd Point highlighted. I suppose, having slammed the government plenty we ought to give them credit for the speed at which they have rolled out the vaccinations. Unfortunately, the first thing that jumps into my head is that the praise realistically should go to the NHS. The second thing I think of is wouldn't it have been much better to let them handle the track and trace programme too? Maybe it's just that £12Billion that keeps bugging me.

Thanks Tom, and it does appear that the symptoms are less this time round which in itself is good news. Early days but so far it's definitely not so bad.

And for the 2nd point, I agree entirely as it has been the NHS delivering the rollout but I'm keen to highlight that the government seem to have learned from the early mistakes and dishing something like this out to the private sector doesn't work. We still appear to be having issues with the privatised element of the track and trace system which I hope means that even the Proths of this world now realise there needs to be a balance between State and Private orgs to make things work, and where the Private sector clearly doesn't have the expertise they are not used.
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(01-21-2021, 09:18 AM)baggy1 Wrote:
(01-19-2021, 04:44 PM)Tom Joad Wrote:
baggy1 Wrote:I had given some thought and decided to start with positive news from now on with delivery of the vaccine but having seen the figures for week 1 I have decided that there is still a big message of caution to put out there.

Week 1 (to the 8th January) 2021 figures for E&W are in and unfortunately there is a massive increase in deaths compared to normal. The 5YA figure for week is 12,175 which is pretty high compared to the rest of the year as January always has the highest figures, however the deaths for week 1 2021 are 17,751 which is 45% above normal - now an amount of that might be due to a bank holiday that would normally be in week one and isn't this year but that would only account for less than 10%. This is the biggest excess death figure since April, there were only 5 bigger excess death weeks in all of the covid time and only 4 weeks with bigger numbers overall.

Hospitalisations are also still going up but it is definitely slowing down, for all of the lockdown skeptics these figures should finally shut them up (it won't) because in the UK we simply haven't managed the virus at all. I hear that we now have the worst deaths per population than anywhere now.

Also, and this is something that needs to be explored further but I have family members who have now got covid for the second time, which raises a big question around herd immunity. They are a family that have kids in school, older kids at work, the kids travel between parents who both have partners that come and go and the older kids move between their family and the boyfriends families. 

OK onto the good news that I planned to start with, the vaccine roll out - credit where it is due there is a big effort going on with a mass vaccination centre both locally and at millennium point. Really well done for getting that going to the government. In the UK as of 17th Jan there were over 4m have had their 1st dose and 400k had their second dose, and although it doesn't work like this that is the equivalent of all the over 80s having the 1st jab with about 30% of the over 75s done, with the equivalent of all 75% of the over 90s getting both jabs.

I think the above news means that we really have to stay vigilant for the next few months until we can start to live a normal life again.

Best wishes to your family members that are suffering Covid for a second time. Are their symptoms as bad 2nd time around? I hope they recover quickly.  This is very disappointing news.  Let's face it, we are all hoping there will be some form of immunity after contracting the virus, however long or short a time it is. The fact is that of the millions worldwide that have now had the illness, there are not that many that have apparently had it twice so I will take some hope from that.
2nd Point highlighted. I suppose, having slammed the government plenty we ought to give them credit for the speed at which they have rolled out the vaccinations. Unfortunately, the first thing that jumps into my head is that the praise realistically should go to the NHS. The second thing I think of is wouldn't it have been much better to let them handle the track and trace programme too? Maybe it's just that £12Billion that keeps bugging me.

Thanks Tom, and it does appear that the symptoms are less this time round which in itself is good news. Early days but so far it's definitely not so bad.

And for the 2nd point, I agree entirely as it has been the NHS delivering the rollout but I'm keen to highlight that the government seem to have learned from the early mistakes and dishing something like this out to the private sector doesn't work. We still appear to be having issues with the privatised element of the track and trace system which I hope means that even the Proths of this world now realise there needs to be a balance between State and Private orgs to make things work, and where the Private sector clearly doesn't have the expertise they are not used.

Will he and they eck as like.
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(01-15-2021, 08:51 AM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)

Some good news at last, the rate of increase of those in hospital has levelled out (virtually) with an increase of just over 1k in the last week. This comes 16 days after the recent lockdown was imposed which sounds about right, I was expecting it to continue for a few more days but it appears we are at the peak. If we have the same rate of decline in numbers in hospital as the 1st wave (c0.85 pw) then that means we are looking at less than 7k by the end of March.

Add to that the vaccine rollout and it is a positive outlook for controlling the virus and hopefully learning to live with it whilst getting back to normal.

Unfortunately this won't result in the deaths reducing for a couple of weeks but it is the start of an improving situation. We need to double down on being careful for the meantime.
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This turnaround (hopefully that's what it is) has been hard won. Let's hope it's not capsized now by somebody just itching to stand at a podium announcing a premature relaxing of the restrictions.
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Ossian Wrote:This turnaround (hopefully that's what it is) has been hard won. Let's hope it's not capsized now by somebody just itching to stand at a podium announcing a premature relaxing of the restrictions.

I'm just watching the 6.0 news and that's about the main thing they asked Doris, "when will you relax lockdown"? Ridiculous.
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Let’s get back to normal and remember schools are safe...

[Image: _116625879_front22-nc.png]
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