Coming to terms with Saturday....

[WorcsWBA]

Love the use of the term shot. Opta has three definitions of a shot 1. A shit shot. 2. A good shot. 3. A fucking shit shot. 
Can you write all of that again using "big chances" instead, and please subtract any Hugill efforts from the total. Please aslo subract any fucking shit shots made a player that in normal circumstances would not be classed as capable of scoring who found himself in and around the box having finished there after a "high press"

I've added the xG stats for the games I posted earlier just for you, as it's the closest thing to what you seek:

• Albion 3 Bristol C 0 (23 shots for; 7 shots against) xG: Albion 3.92 Bristol C 0.79
  
• Albion 1 Hull 0 (17 shots for; 9 shots against) xG: Albion 2.38 Hull 0.54
  
• Albion 0 Forest 0 (16 shots for; 9 shots against) xG: Albion 1.18 Forest 0.57
  
• Coventry 1 Albion 2 (10 shots for; 12 shots against) xG: Coventry 0.88 Albion 1.53
  
• Albion 1 Reading 0 (25 shots for; 4 shots against) xG: Albion 3.11 Reading 0.55
  
• Barnsley 0 Albion 0 (16 shots for; 3 shots against) xG: Barnsley 0.09 Albion 1.75
  
• Derby 1 Albion 0 (19 shots for; 3 shots against) xG: Derby 0.20 Albion 1.15
  
• Albion 3 Peterborough 0 (27 shots for; 1 shot against) xG: Albion 3.91 Peterborough 0.08
  

Source: Infogol.net

[Spandaubaggie]

Have to say Worcs, you’re a welcome addition to the cut and thrust here. There’s plenty of stuff you’ve said I don’t agree with but you put up intelligent evidence based arguments for most stuff and base things on science rather than people here who saw a magpie on a way to a match and then knew we’d lose.
Anyhow good on you chap.

[Squid]

Morning all

Just about settled down after that abject, weak surrender against Luton at the weekend

I've read a lot on here, pretty much all I agree with, that 2nd half was up there with Preston at Home, the 2nd half at Milwall, all this 3 games into Bruce's reign, if they had enough of Val they took 7 months to let us know, that performance stank and I sincerely hope Bruce laid into them and had them into training yesterday (as has been rumoured)

Couple of observations

SJ - I've been critical of him this season but he seems way more vocal now, berating, organising, he played a part in Val going, a big part, so maybe he's stepping up now and showing a bit more passion, could have done better for the first goal mind having got a big hand on it

Furlong - Slightly better, Townsend, piss poor again

Semi - Terrible touch for a professional footballer, so sloppy on the ball

Clarke - By far and away our best centre half, bizarrely pulled

Bartley, real vote of confidence from Bruce bringing him straight back in and giving him the armband, summed up the current mood of the senior pro's with a half hearted performance and no passion or desire, his defending for the opening and game changing goal had to be seen to be believed, shocking on every level

Our midfield - Val clearly set up where the bulk of our creativity was meant to be from wide or from the front 3, he wanted a midfielder in Jan and never got it, so he realised we were short here, letting Snodgrass go and bringing nobody in was a bizarre move with Bruce already with us but it's painfully obvious we can create anything of note through the lines, Mowatt looks one paced and shot, Molumby works hard but had the ability on the ball of a semi pro player at best, Reach tries hard but is woefully short at this level, and is no more a number 10 than I am, if Bruce persists with 3-4-1-2 and he should IMO then either Grady or Robinson or Castro has to play that 10 role, Reach should be nowhere near it ever again

Grant - Don't get me started, I've said all season he's been piss poor and got shot down with people pointing to his goal record, when he was scoring, yet his play box to box again is more league one/two than Championship/Prem, such a poor footballer and another one going through the motions

Carrol - Feeling sorry for the bloke as he's clearly working harder than most with little reward or support, imagine if he got injured now!

Bruce - Thought he made some real bad calls on Saturday, taking off Clarke and leaving Semi on when booked was barmy, going 442 and changing it 5 minutes later, granted it wasn't working, was all a bit Sunday league and leaving Reach on for 90 minutes was borderline sackable on it's own, early days but we learned a lot about him as he did the players Saturday, ideally don't want to see such a mess from either of them ever again

I've made it clear I believe Val would have sorted this shower out, Bruce has come in and 3 games in he's gone full on Val and told them some home truths, both managers can't be wrong, some of these wankers need to step up and show something on Tuesday or the atmosphere will be toxic v Swansea should we not get a result

Cuzer

I don't see the Matt Clarke that you see. I agree about Bartley (who may not be fully fit) and Ajayi, although he wasn't too bad on Saturday. But Clarke was involved in a couple of truly calamitous moments in the first half, then stood still and watched while Luton scored. Had there been a rebound, there were three unmarked players who'd out-wrestled the static Clarke. I don't think Bruce sees a good defender there and nor do I.

Kipre was unlucky to be dropped and O'Shea really must play as soon as possible. Clarke won't be signed permanently IMO.

Strange that Snods was released while the wheels of Ismael's dismissal were already in motion. He has more creativity than most of ours.

Yes, clearly on a different page re Clarke, the first goal was all the fault of Bartley, shocking defending by a player with his experience, and a so called leader and organiser, proper schoolboy stuff

Clarke for me has been our best defender all season, also tries to get forward and create space for Townsend

Kipre was decent and I like him but was terrible v PNE and Milwall and has clearly paid the price for the shift to what was a back four

Agree re O'Shea but can only see him playing on the right really

Cuzer

I could be wrong, but I imagine Kipre thought a lot of Val and having the rest of the team fall out with him may well have affected his game. I have a lot of time for him anyway and I've never seen him do anything other than work hard.

There were also rumours a while ago on twitter of a rift between Mowatt and the other players who didn't rate him and saw him as a teacher's pet. Not sure if any of the better connected can throw any light on that.

[Hopalong]

I have said it before, the definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.

We keep changing the manager but the senior pros remain;. Bartley, Kipre, Furlong, Townsend, Livermore, Robinson, Grant, Diang...etc. I am not saying they are all bad eggs, I am saying collectively and their collective culture is toxic. There needs to be a shift in culture and attitude which Val was trying to do (as it seems Bruce is) but to do that we have to ship some of these out...and bring in some younger hungrier players with something to prove.

For me, going up is paramount as it guarantees revenue, however what I do not want is to go up and maintain the totality of of senior pros. We have to make a change, if that results in a dead premier season, but helps us in the long term so be it.

If we do not go up, in the known restrictions of their contracts, we have to make that change but more incremental as we will have less money to play with.

Doing nothing, or do minimal this summer and we sow the long term seeds of demise.

I wouldn't include Kipre on that list tbh, nor Townsend. Kipper only broke into the team this year, having been out on loan most of last season. Townsend might not be at his best right now but he's a 100%-er.

most of those you mention are 25 and under,

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The bottom line is we did not take the two gilt-edged chances we had in the first half which may have given us a victory.  same story for most of the season.  

Then having missed our chances we bloody fall asleep and let them have two easy goals.  

Once we go a goal down these days it's game over.

[WorcsWBA]

There were also rumours a while ago on twitter of a rift between Mowatt and the other players who didn't rate him and saw him as a teacher's pet. Not sure if any of the better connected can throw any light on that.

I hadn't heard that one, but the immediate thought that springs to mind is that people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Last season, Val won 25 of his 44 games at Barnsley with Mowatt as captain so, whatever's gone wrong with Mowatt since his injury this season didn't happen last season.

---

Have to say Worcs, you’re a welcome addition to the cut and thrust here. There’s plenty of stuff you’ve said I don’t agree with but you put up intelligent evidence based arguments for most stuff and base things on science rather than people here who saw a magpie on a way to a match and then knew we’d lose.
Anyhow good on you chap.

Thanks, I appreciate your comment. I can't see the point of threads being based on who can shout the loudest or insult others the most, I'd much rather have an intelligent, reasoned debate.

One consequence of the spread and normalisation of lunatic fringes is that the world is quickly losing the ability to agree to differ.

[Pontificator]

A decent enough assessment Cuzer bar your view on Ismael would have sorted them out. There was zero evidence whatsoever that things would improve. We'd had 3 months  (19 games) of playing like a lower half of the table side

I'm doing my best to move on from Val, but can't let things like this go unchallenged. As late as Dec 17th, we'd lost just 4 of 23 games and were on an unbeaten 5 match run. Of the 19 games that you mention, I can pick out 8 that were good or very good performances, even if some of them didn't get the results we would have wanted:

• Albion 3 Bristol C 0 (23 shots for 7 shots against)
  
• Albion 1 Hull 0 (17 shots for 9 shots against)
  
• Albion 0 Forest 0 (16 shots for 9 shots against) - we were looking good for a victory until Molumby was sent off
  
• Coventry 1 Albion 2 (10 shots for 12 shots against) - we deserved the win in that game
  
• Albion 1 Reading 0 (25 shots for 4 shots against) - 1-0 massacre
  
• Barnsley 0 Albion 0 (16 shots for 3 shots against) - robbed, Barnsley never had a sniff
  
• Derby 1 Albion 0 (19 shots for 3 shots against) - completely robbed
  
• Albion 3 Peterborough 0 (27 shots for 1 shot against) - despite all the booing, we played them off the park
  

The Preston and Millwall games were dire, but the lily-livered players gave up in those games and the fans' attitude had already become toxic before then, unjustifiably so IMO.

Love the use of the term shot. Opta has three definitions of a shot 1. A shit shot. 2. A good shot. 3. A fucking shit shot. 
Can you write all of that again using "big chances" instead, and please subtract any Hugill efforts from the total. Please aslo subract any fucking shit shots made a player that in normal circumstances would not be classed as capable of scoring who found himself in and around the box having finished there after a "high press"

Hahaha

What you are defining there is xG and my god don't go there.

Not quite

Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

Big Chances: A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

[Bob Fossil]

Have to say Worcs, you’re a welcome addition to the cut and thrust here. There’s plenty of stuff you’ve said I don’t agree with but you put up intelligent evidence based arguments for most stuff and base things on science rather than people here who saw a magpie on a way to a match and then knew we’d lose.
Anyhow good on you chap.

Oh shit!

I saw one this morning, walking under a ladder, on the back of a black cat, whilst looking in a broken mirror and opening a packet of crisps upside down.
We're doomed!
7-0

[BurleyBaggie]

A decent enough assessment Cuzer bar your view on Ismael would have sorted them out. There was zero evidence whatsoever that things would improve. We'd had 3 months  (19 games) of playing like a lower half of the table side

I'm doing my best to move on from Val, but can't let things like this go unchallenged. As late as Dec 17th, we'd lost just 4 of 23 games and were on an unbeaten 5 match run. Of the 19 games that you mention, I can pick out 8 that were good or very good performances, even if some of them didn't get the results we would have wanted:

• Albion 3 Bristol C 0 (23 shots for 7 shots against)
  
• Albion 1 Hull 0 (17 shots for 9 shots against)
  
• Albion 0 Forest 0 (16 shots for 9 shots against) - we were looking good for a victory until Molumby was sent off
  
• Coventry 1 Albion 2 (10 shots for 12 shots against) - we deserved the win in that game
  
• Albion 1 Reading 0 (25 shots for 4 shots against) - 1-0 massacre
  
• Barnsley 0 Albion 0 (16 shots for 3 shots against) - robbed, Barnsley never had a sniff
  
• Derby 1 Albion 0 (19 shots for 3 shots against) - completely robbed
  
• Albion 3 Peterborough 0 (27 shots for 1 shot against) - despite all the booing, we played them off the park
  

The Preston and Millwall games were dire, but the lily-livered players gave up in those games and the fans' attitude had already become toxic before then, unjustifiably so IMO.

Love the use of the term shot. Opta has three definitions of a shot 1. A shit shot. 2. A good shot. 3. A fucking shit shot. 
Can you write all of that again using "big chances" instead, and please subtract any Hugill efforts from the total. Please aslo subract any fucking shit shots made a player that in normal circumstances would not be classed as capable of scoring who found himself in and around the box having finished there after a "high press"

Hahaha

What you are defining there is xG and my god don't go there.

Not quite

Expected Goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance. Adding up a player or team’s expected goals can give us an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken.

Big Chances: A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

I know what xG is and isn’t - it was a joke regarding some perceived criticism of statistics and analysis form certain board members. 

Rubbish in joke.