The figures for the week ending 15th May are out and there is a big obvious pattern developing in that this is vastly disproportionate on the over 65s. Year on year deaths to date is now over 58k excess this year compared to last, and of that over 53k are over 65. One stat to be watched is the excess deaths per week which was dropping but has plateaued / slightly increased for this week (wk 16: 13.3k excess; wk 17: 11.9k; wk 18: 6.7k; wk 19: 3.6k; and wk 20: 4.3k)
Because the government tried to fudge the figures in the 1st place to downplay the deaths they've painted themselves into a corner now. The focus of the recovery should be to restore public confidence around the under 65s by showing them the stats and have a effective proposal of how to get the over 65s back into society.
One note of caution is that these 58k excess deaths have occurred following a lockdown so they would obviously be magnified without it. I am taking the approach of sit and wait in the meantime anyway because I want to see what happens two or three weeks on from the lifting of restrictions a few days ago.
Excess deaths by age group:
Under 45s - 200
45s-64 - 4,839
over 65s - 53,391
Realistically there needs to be an effective track and trace monitoring system in place before anything but we are miles off that at the moment apparently.
Just noticed this on the Beeb with pictures saying the same thing but splitting out the over 75s : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52807376
It does have one good point in there that I had forgotten - My figures are only for England and Wales, there are an extra 5k + from Scotland and Northern Ireland to add to the 58k figure above.
Because the government tried to fudge the figures in the 1st place to downplay the deaths they've painted themselves into a corner now. The focus of the recovery should be to restore public confidence around the under 65s by showing them the stats and have a effective proposal of how to get the over 65s back into society.
One note of caution is that these 58k excess deaths have occurred following a lockdown so they would obviously be magnified without it. I am taking the approach of sit and wait in the meantime anyway because I want to see what happens two or three weeks on from the lifting of restrictions a few days ago.
Excess deaths by age group:
Under 45s - 200
45s-64 - 4,839
over 65s - 53,391
Realistically there needs to be an effective track and trace monitoring system in place before anything but we are miles off that at the moment apparently.
Just noticed this on the Beeb with pictures saying the same thing but splitting out the over 75s : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52807376
It does have one good point in there that I had forgotten - My figures are only for England and Wales, there are an extra 5k + from Scotland and Northern Ireland to add to the 58k figure above.