(06-26-2020, 10:07 PM)Brentbaggie Wrote: The death rate is not a good guide. The infection rate is the one we should be really worried about - unless you're dead of course - and that is now stubbornly around the 1000 mark. Hospital admissions have fallen which is welcome but the numbers becoming infected should have fallen much further by now - as they did in Spain and Italy. Still reckon we came out of lockdown a week - 10 days too early. Now it's a free-for-all as far as many people are concerned - except they're not concerned.
Slightly disagree with the best guide BB, the infection rate is basically a figure that is as good as what we can test, it's a good indicator of how much is out there but because test and trace has been so poor then we are not getting a good picture of where the figure was to compare with now. The figure I'm watching is the hospital admissions figure which is much more certain.
That figure is dropping but it is almightily slow - Hospital admissions at it's peak at the start of April was over 3.5k, that dropped below 3k on the 9th April, below 2k on the 18th April and below 1k on about the 8th May (it went above that for a couple of days but has stayed below since).
It then took nearly a month to get to below 500 (6th June) where it has slowly dropped to just under 400 now (nearly 3 weeks later). Hopefully it continues to drop and I'm keeping an eye on it and there don't appear to be any spikes following the recent events which is a good indicator of what is out there and being spread around.
It's probably worth adding to that the data is only up to 23rd June as of today so about a week behind