The amount of infections in a community will lead to a certain level of hospital admissions using pure statistics based on there being an equal likelihood of spread. E.g. if you have 1000 people infected and of that 1000 there are 100 that would need hospital treatment, and of that 100 in hospital 10 would die then you can realistically expect that if there are 2000 infections then each of the other numbers would double also.
Seeing as we have never had a good measure of infections then the only figure we can say with certainty is the hospital admission figures. As they are not going up it can be reasonable to assume that the infections aren’t going up either, which leads us to understand that the infections were always there, just not measured.
Does that make sense?
It has to be added that there is a lot to learn about this disease and I am basing my theory simply on statistical likelihood,
It’s probably worth pointing out that they are dealing with local lockdowns now as well which indicates that they have seen an increase in hospital admissions or 111 / 999 calls in a particular area, and followed that up with increased testing in that area.
This fucker keeps moving around and we a playing, as Johnson said, whack-a-mole.
Seeing as we have never had a good measure of infections then the only figure we can say with certainty is the hospital admission figures. As they are not going up it can be reasonable to assume that the infections aren’t going up either, which leads us to understand that the infections were always there, just not measured.
Does that make sense?
It has to be added that there is a lot to learn about this disease and I am basing my theory simply on statistical likelihood,
It’s probably worth pointing out that they are dealing with local lockdowns now as well which indicates that they have seen an increase in hospital admissions or 111 / 999 calls in a particular area, and followed that up with increased testing in that area.
This fucker keeps moving around and we a playing, as Johnson said, whack-a-mole.