10-16-2020, 11:27 AM
(10-16-2020, 10:46 AM)baggy1 Wrote:(10-09-2020, 02:54 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Another Friday and another increase in numbers; 3,044 now in hospital in England compared to 1,995 a week ago and 368 of those on ventilators compared with 285 this time last week so basically 1.5 times increase in a week of those in hospital which was the same for the week before (23rd - 1,381) and the week before that (16th - 894). If we continue like that then we will have issues. On the same curve of the last 4 weeks that gives us 4.5k next week, 6.75k the week after and 10k by the end of the month.
This is where I don't envy any decision makers. The increases from what I read is in the University cities which gives a good indication where the problem lies. I can see the logic in closing pubs but wholesale seems a bit of a blanket approach. and as for closing restaurants as well - that doesn't make much sense, however the places I will visit are well looked after and apply the rules strictly, I imagine there are a number that don't follow that rule always.
We really have managed to fuck this up royally with have a test and trace system that is next to useless. Locking down late in the 1st place was an error that we can argue about til the cows come home but once that happened, to not have a recovery plan to install a tacking system is criminal.
Time to be careful folks - I know it's the last thing we need but it looks like we are going to have to go out less and minimise the life we wanted again.
I thought it worth quoting last weeks figures based on the fact that we are not far off those projected figures this week. The number of people in hospital in England as of yesterday is 4,379 which keeps us on the path to having 10k in hospital by the end of the month. We are definitely following the curve of 1.5x increase each week now for a 5 week period.
Numbers on ventilators are also up to 482, up 114 on last week (x1.3 increase)
This adds to the call for the circuit breaker as unfortunately there is nothing else that can be used. It is tragic that we are this far into the pandemic and only have one effective option left.
For the love of god I really hope not. You'll be killing so many more people that the ones you think you're saving.
The rising number of cases and deaths is proceeding 4x more slowly now than in the spring. Whilst this means in some areas it will continue to rise in others it will not. Plus if they keep adding in the 28% of people who catch covid when they're in hospital (they go in with non-covid issues). Plus the death rate is much much lower.