Weekly figures are now out for the week ended 9th October and there is some comfort in the fact that we are running at normal rates for the time of year. Comparitively against the 5YA the figure is up by 140ish deaths (9,954 vs 9,811) and virtually exactly what 2019 was (9,973).
That is good and shows that the increase in hospitalisations hasn't led to deaths yet, but a word of caution on this - there is a delay on these figures and there is also a delay on deaths occurring after hospitalisation. The figure in hospital on the 9th October was 3,090 in England it is now at 5,402 but having said that I would have expected to have seen an increase if it was going to happen. Comparing it with earlier in the year, the 1st week to see an increase of any real size was week ending the 3rd of April which in theory (comparing the number of hospitalisations) will be equivalent to next weeks figures. That will be the acid test on deaths.
As said on the Friday post hospitalisations are up and rising but ventilator use is pretty steady although rising slowly but nowhere near the April figures (503 on the 18th October compared with 1,494 on the 2nd April).
Fingers crossed and keep safe folks
That is good and shows that the increase in hospitalisations hasn't led to deaths yet, but a word of caution on this - there is a delay on these figures and there is also a delay on deaths occurring after hospitalisation. The figure in hospital on the 9th October was 3,090 in England it is now at 5,402 but having said that I would have expected to have seen an increase if it was going to happen. Comparing it with earlier in the year, the 1st week to see an increase of any real size was week ending the 3rd of April which in theory (comparing the number of hospitalisations) will be equivalent to next weeks figures. That will be the acid test on deaths.
As said on the Friday post hospitalisations are up and rising but ventilator use is pretty steady although rising slowly but nowhere near the April figures (503 on the 18th October compared with 1,494 on the 2nd April).
Fingers crossed and keep safe folks