10-28-2020, 08:26 AM
(10-27-2020, 10:12 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Week 42 (w/e 16th Oct) figures are now out and again some mixed messages. The total number of deaths in E&W for the week compared with the 5YA is up by about 650 and against 2020 is up about 400, so neither of those are significant but both higher than normal.
However based on the number of hospitalisations in England as at the 16th (4,647) and the equivalent time in the 1st wave (26th March had 5,045) the number of excess deaths vs the 5YA are slightly down (1,011 in Wk 13 vs 669 in Wk 42) but following a pattern - there is a slower rate of growth in hospitalisations this time and a lessor excess death rate but both are rising.
Next weeks figures will be a huge comparison because wk 14 in the 1st wave is where it really started to take off (6k excess deaths in wk 14 compared with 1k in wk 13).
Hospitalisations also continue to rise with 7.5k in England with slightly less than 10% of those on ventilators (both as of yesterday). The rates of growth are still at around 1.5 and if we get to the end of the week with around 10k in hospital that will show continued growth at those rates.
Some big weeks worth of data coming up. Buckle in and keep safe folks.
I looked at excess deaths for Week 42.
669. Excess in care and private homes: 866 (184 fewer deaths in hospitals). Less than 25% of 670 deaths mentioning Covid outside of hospitals. Conclusion: All excess deaths accounted for by non-Covid deaths in Care home and private homes.