10-31-2020, 12:44 PM
(10-29-2020, 04:26 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Numbers in Hospital:
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
8th Oct - 3,044 (1.34 x pw) (I've adjusted this because it was 8 days data therefore reducing the growth to measure 7 days)
15th Oct - 4,379 (1.43 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.59 x pw) (this is based on only 6 days growth multiplied up to 7 days as they are slow on getting yesterdays figures out today)
Probably worth updating this with 7 day figures after todays news, leaks, denials of news, denials of leaks, and investigations into the leaks that have been denied. Anyway these are hospital beds in use for covid only for England:
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
That is what you call a constant trend and can be safe to place some confidence in the fact that if nothing changes the trend will continue. If it continues without any changes the figures will increase by 1.4 each week in the following pattern
4th November - 11,949
11th November - 16,728 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 23,420
25th November - 32,788 (this will be three weeks after lockdown if we act this week)
2nd December - 45,903
9th December - 64,264
Now taking the positives from what we know, there is better treatment for patients now which is reducing the related deaths of those hospitalised. The downside to that is they stay in hospital longer and continue to take up resource. There is also a lot more awareness of how this is spreading and precautions are in place by individuals - the downside to that is people are stopping from going out and spending in the economy because it appears that by doing that the virus spreads faster which leads to a slow death for business.