UK Covid death toll

[strawman]

When you say expected results, what does that mean? Are these results of tests carried out so far?

And you didn't let me know when you thought there was a worse year (or even comparable) for flu deaths. Is there a particular year that I should look at?

So for example Excess Winter Deaths via the ONS

2017-18 49,410
2014-15 43,720
2008-09 36,330
1999-00 48,420

Notably current 5y average runs at circa 36K. Also note 2019-20 flu season was estimated at 15K excess deaths below that.

Also note that via the ONS for these years it states "Respiratory diseases continued to be the leading cause of excess winter deaths".

I'll quote a few older ones:

1989-90 47,200
1975-76 58,100
1962-63 89,600
1950-51 106,400

So if we want to take the current higher number of 61,648 Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate (as opposed to 49,770 Deaths within 28 days of positive test) then there is an increase in excess deaths equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal.

A few things that I've not considered yet directly but will put out there

- Period of reporting - for the purposes of 2019-20 winter excess deaths the flu season would end (as per other posts on here) this April/May. Thus should the 2019-20 winter excess deaths figure include some of those who may have died from covid Feb-Apr? May explain the 15K on average lower deaths reported for the 2019-20 season.

- Are all 61,648 deaths of Covid? Or were they tested positive for Covid (false positives aside) but died of a previous underlying condition. On this I would say every year since time immemorial people have had pneumonia put on their death certificate as cause of death but as I know personally that wasn't the killer that was because they were dying lying down in an hospital bed for weeks on end. Tbh a tragic suffering and extension to life in many cases.

- We are currently seeing there are no influenza cases and virtually no deaths from any other respiratory illnesses bar Covid. So the reckoning for excess deaths in this 2020-21 season will be interesting in light of the fact that: many vulnerable people have already succumbed; the lag on non-respiratory excess deaths that we are now seeing coming through because other health issues have been put aside because we've only been treating one illness for 8 mths; and a possible kicking the can down the line into future months because of lockdowns.

So as a conclusion from just this information would the appropriate response at the start of this month - given this data - lead you to believe that Covid is so much more lethal than any other influenza that we have to lock everyone away, kill over a longer period healthy people who are missing treatment and savage the economy, business and livelihoods.

I'm not seeing it whatsoever. It's corruption, fraud and negligence.

Nicely misses the point that even taking your point that excess deaths are  equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal, it hasn't been a NORMAL virulent flu year. Firstly most of the excess deaths, in this country anyway, are out of flu season and then there have not been any mass gatherings at football matches, gigs etc - people have been restricting the amount of people they visit etc in order to reduce the circumstances where people could be infected and be hospitalised and possibly die. How many more hospitalisations and deaths would there have been if we had carried on like a normal year ?