UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Oct - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)

Positive news in that the growth rate has reduced to 1.2 when it has been running at 1.4 for so long which if extrapolated would be

11th November - 12,412
18th November - 14,895
25th November - 17,874 (this will be three weeks after lockdown and the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
2nd December  - declining figures after lockdown follow a slower rate than the increase before the peak.

Effectively putting the lockdown in place this week means that, if we follow the same pattern as the 1st wave, then we will have hospitalisations peak at about the same as April, but there does appear to be a better survival rate this time.

All of this relates just to England - Further good news on the hospitalisation front, the rate of of increase has dropped the 4th October. The number in hospital is now 11,990 which gives an increase on last week of 1.15. If the rate continues to reduce like this we will start seeing a drop in those in hospital in the next couple of weeks. 

There reasons for this reduction could be due to the tier 3 lockdowns in the NorthWest feeding through which would indicate that the Prime Minister could have followed his 1st policy of not locking down the country and been justified, or it could just be the natural progression now as we see more people being infected building up more immunity which therefore leaves less people to get hospitalised eventually. Again it's difficult to say definitively however I'm certain that there will be many interpretations of the data.

Continuing at the reduced rate would have us move 13,189 next week and 14,508 the week after and then on potentially a reduction in those in hospital. The current lockdown should ensure that it doesn't take hold in that period (although I'm not seeing this as much of a lockdown apart from I can't go to the pub and the missus can't go to zara). 

There appears to be a constant figures of about 10% of those in hospital on ventilators and IIRC that figure was about 15% in the 1st wave so good news also there. Those on ventilators are 1,081