11-19-2020, 05:24 PM
(11-19-2020, 04:47 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Nov - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)
11th Nov - 11,990 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 13,626 (1.14 x pw)
The rate of increase seems to be gradually slowing and now is below 1.15 pw, continuing the trend will see us reach the following figures
25th November - 15,533 (however this will be three weeks after lockdown and following the pattern in April which peaked at 17,172 three weeks after lockdown)
All of this relates just to England as ever. If we do start to see a drop after next week we will be able to show a pattern of these waves with any lockdown taking three weeks to impact which will allow us to plan them better.
The rate of growth this time has been much shallower and although we are approaching the same levels of hospitalised I'm not seeing the same levels of problems as last time. Added to all of that we have some vaccines close to helping the situation there are some real positives to be taken from the potential future state..
I know this is pretty shit and grinding everyone down but keeping disciplined for a while longer will hep improve the situation.
Exactly. The war was mentioned on a previous post. It may well be a war of attrition.