Billy, you have got this completely backwards, I've never disagreed with any point you have made about testing and as I keep saying the points you raise on that have validity. I've not looked into them enough to form an opinion which is why I don't comment on them. And just because I don't agree with you doesn't mean i disagree with you.
My issue is that you downplay hospital admissions and excess deaths. You also keep comparing this with the flu which it isn't. There are clear patterns that occur, hospital admissions start to rise and excess deaths follow. When that happens something has to be done otherwise the admissions will continue to rise and excess deaths will keep increasing, I've shown that time and time again, these are facts. Unfortunately there isn't anything else in the toolkit that will stop that rise in both stats at this point apart from putting restrictions in place, and the extreme version of that is locking down. Once we have a vaccine, and if it works then that should negate the need for restrictions - job done.
And I agree entirely that something needs to be done quickly for the sake of businesses and the country's wider health implications that will inevitably come from having those restrictions in place. But if the only option on the table is removing those restrictions, which as shown will cause an increase in hospitalisations and deaths then it isn't an option.
My issue is that you downplay hospital admissions and excess deaths. You also keep comparing this with the flu which it isn't. There are clear patterns that occur, hospital admissions start to rise and excess deaths follow. When that happens something has to be done otherwise the admissions will continue to rise and excess deaths will keep increasing, I've shown that time and time again, these are facts. Unfortunately there isn't anything else in the toolkit that will stop that rise in both stats at this point apart from putting restrictions in place, and the extreme version of that is locking down. Once we have a vaccine, and if it works then that should negate the need for restrictions - job done.
And I agree entirely that something needs to be done quickly for the sake of businesses and the country's wider health implications that will inevitably come from having those restrictions in place. But if the only option on the table is removing those restrictions, which as shown will cause an increase in hospitalisations and deaths then it isn't an option.