11-24-2020, 01:01 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2020, 01:07 PM by Derek Hardballs.)
(11-24-2020, 10:14 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Another bad week for excess deaths with 1,904 more than the 5 year average and 1,604 more than 2019. This means that over the past 5 weeks we've had 6k excess deaths compared to the 5YA. The other bad piece of news is that we have reached and passed this week (week 46 to 13th Nov) the total amount of deaths for 2019 with 6 weeks to go. Compared to 2019 the majority of the excess deaths have come in the over 65s group with 1,322 of the 1,604 from that age group.
The good news is that the numbers in hospital appear to have plateaued at around 13.5k and hopefully will start to drop soon as we are at about the point of 3 weeks after the 2nd lockdown.
Other good news is that the excess deaths are not increasing in the same way that they did in April / May. The numbers against the 5YA for the past 5 weeks have been 669; 980; 996; 1,481 and 1,904, whereas in April they rapidly increased from the w/e 3rd April and were higher throughout with figures of 1,011; 6,082; 7,996; 11,854 and a peak of 11,539 on the w/e 24th April (6 or 7 weeks after lockdown). This wave / ripple has been much less severe than earlier in the year which could be down to many differences in the way we have been under restriction with a combination of better awareness.
There are other points of view as expressed by Billy and they may be valid - this may be just a very bad flu season, and there is a theory as discussed by Mike Yeadon that we have suffered this year because of what he calls 'dry tinder', i.e. because we have had a few years of mild winters and low deaths then there are a large number of people that would have, in normal circumstances, not made it this far and were susceptible to any virus that came along. This isn't my view but highlighting it for balance.
The obvious good news is the vaccine. Whether you believe it is needed or not there is now a definite end in sight to all of this by Easter. Fingers crossed that is all goes to plan - stay safe folks.
The voice of reason. Cheers B1. It's a real eye opener how some are handling this situation sadly.
Personally I know four people who have died of Covid and one who has ended up on a ventilator aged between approx 50-70yrs. Only one would have shielded from the 'flu'.