(11-19-2020, 04:47 PM)baggy1 Wrote: Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Nov - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)
11th Nov - 11,990 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 13,626 (1.14 x pw)
The rate of increase seems to be gradually slowing and now is below 1.15 pw, continuing the trend will see us reach the following figures
25th November - 15,533 (however this will be three weeks after lockdown and following the pattern in April which peaked at 17,172 three weeks after lockdown)
All of this relates just to England as ever. If we do start to see a drop after next week we will be able to show a pattern of these waves with any lockdown taking three weeks to impact which will allow us to plan them better.
The rate of growth this time has been much shallower and although we are approaching the same levels of hospitalised I'm not seeing the same levels of problems as last time. Added to all of that we have some vaccines close to helping the situation there are some real positives to be taken from the potential future state..
I know this is pretty shit and grinding everyone down but keeping disciplined for a while longer will hep improve the situation.
Some good news coming out of this painful lockdown is that the rate of increase has stopped (slightly negative now) and the number of hospitalisations in England on the 25th is 13,337. Hopefully by next weeks figures we should start to see that figure dropping.
Whether you believe a lockdown works or not it is hard to argue with the stats that they were rising until the lockdown started and it has slowed down and plateaued now. That could just be a coincidence of course but it does mirror the timings of the lockdown in the 1st wave.
It should also be pointed out that the rate actually started to reduce before the lockdown was introduced and that could be read that the local tiered lockdowns were the reason for that. Whichever way it appears that the peak has been reached and hopefully will start to reduce again.