The 99.97% figure is for those under 25, it depends where you start middle age I guess.
And just put the IFR figures into the relevant population groups and it estimates that if we just let it run (herd immunity) it would result in 614k deaths because of covid. The IFR rates were as at the end of October so I am not certain if the new strain changes that.
POP IFR Total
0 to 4 3,860,000 0 -
5 to 9 4,350,000 0.01 435
10 to 14 3,950,000 0.01 395
15 to 19 3,660,000 0.02 732
20 to 24 4,150,000 0.03 1,245
25 to 29 4,510,000 0.04 1,804
30 to 34 4,500,000 0.06 2,700
35 to 39 4,400,000 0.1 4,400
40 to 44 4,020,000 0.16 6,432
45 to 49 4,400,000 0.24 10,560
50 to 54 4,660,000 0.38 17,708
55 to 59 4,410,000 0.6 26,460
60 to 64 3,760,000 0.94 35,344
65 to 69 3,370,000 1.47 49,539
70 to 74 3,320,000 2.31 76,692
75 to 79 2,330,000 3.61 84,113
80 to 84 1,720,000 5.66 97,352
85 to 89 1,040,000 8.86 92,144
90+ 610,000 17.37 105,957
614,012
And just put the IFR figures into the relevant population groups and it estimates that if we just let it run (herd immunity) it would result in 614k deaths because of covid. The IFR rates were as at the end of October so I am not certain if the new strain changes that.
POP IFR Total
0 to 4 3,860,000 0 -
5 to 9 4,350,000 0.01 435
10 to 14 3,950,000 0.01 395
15 to 19 3,660,000 0.02 732
20 to 24 4,150,000 0.03 1,245
25 to 29 4,510,000 0.04 1,804
30 to 34 4,500,000 0.06 2,700
35 to 39 4,400,000 0.1 4,400
40 to 44 4,020,000 0.16 6,432
45 to 49 4,400,000 0.24 10,560
50 to 54 4,660,000 0.38 17,708
55 to 59 4,410,000 0.6 26,460
60 to 64 3,760,000 0.94 35,344
65 to 69 3,370,000 1.47 49,539
70 to 74 3,320,000 2.31 76,692
75 to 79 2,330,000 3.61 84,113
80 to 84 1,720,000 5.66 97,352
85 to 89 1,040,000 8.86 92,144
90+ 610,000 17.37 105,957
614,012