(01-15-2021, 08:51 AM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
Some good news at last, the rate of increase of those in hospital has levelled out (virtually) with an increase of just over 1k in the last week. This comes 16 days after the recent lockdown was imposed which sounds about right, I was expecting it to continue for a few more days but it appears we are at the peak. If we have the same rate of decline in numbers in hospital as the 1st wave (c0.85 pw) then that means we are looking at less than 7k by the end of March.
Add to that the vaccine rollout and it is a positive outlook for controlling the virus and hopefully learning to live with it whilst getting back to normal.
Unfortunately this won't result in the deaths reducing for a couple of weeks but it is the start of an improving situation. We need to double down on being careful for the meantime.