UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)

Some good news at last, the rate of increase of those in hospital has levelled out (virtually) with an increase of just over 1k in the last week. This comes 16 days after the recent lockdown was imposed which sounds about right, I was expecting it to continue for a few more days but it appears we are at the peak. If we have the same rate of decline in numbers in hospital as the 1st wave (c0.85 pw) then that means we are looking at less than 7k by the end of March.

Add to that the vaccine rollout and it is a positive outlook for controlling the virus and hopefully learning to live with it whilst getting back to normal.

Unfortunately this won't result in the deaths reducing for a couple of weeks but it is the start of an improving situation. We need to double down on being careful for the meantime.

Following on from last weeks levelling out of those in hospital we have seen the 1st signs of the numbers dropping. This week has been pretty level with the drops occurring in the last couple of days, hopefully that will filter through to a larger % drop next week. We are a long way from even getting down to the numbers from the 1st wave but at least we are moving in the right direction. Taking a drop of 15% a week from now on we are on target to reach just over 10k in hospital by the 8th March which is the date they are talking about releasing some restrictions.

Also as of the 24th we have given the 1st dose of the vaccine to 6.64M people, this is the equivalent of everybody over 75 and nearly 30% of the over 70s (I appreciate it doesn't work like that), and there are nearly half a million who have had both doses. 
Edit: as of the 27th we have given the 1st dose to nearly 7.5M people which equate to the same as above and about half of the over 70s.


So, some positive news and I'll take it no matter what.