UK Covid death toll

[Malcolm Tucker]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)

Following on from last weeks levelling out of those in hospital we have seen the 1st signs of the numbers dropping. This week has been pretty level with the drops occurring in the last couple of days, hopefully that will filter through to a larger % drop next week. We are a long way from even getting down to the numbers from the 1st wave but at least we are moving in the right direction. Taking a drop of 15% a week from now on we are on target to reach just over 10k in hospital by the 8th March which is the date they are talking about releasing some restrictions.

Also as of the 24th we have given the 1st dose of the vaccine to 6.64M people, this is the equivalent of everybody over 75 and nearly 30% of the over 70s (I appreciate it doesn't work like that), and there are nearly half a million who have had both doses. 
Edit: as of the 27th we have given the 1st dose to nearly 7.5M people which equate to the same as above and about half of the over 70s.

So, some positive news and I'll take it no matter what.

And after the 1st full week of numbers dropping it is quite something that the % reduction is about 15% which was very similar to the % decreases from the 1st wave. It does show the correlation and gives us an ability to predict outcomes with some confidence. Based on that % we will be at around 7k in hospital by the end of March. There are currently around 26k in hospital.

It also looks like we are nearly at 5M doses of the vaccine a day which is a fantastic figure. 10.5M people with the 1st jab is equivalent to all over 70s and just less than a third of the 65-70 group. Early signs are that it is effective which is great news especially around its ability too reduce transmission.

Shouldn’t the vaccine start having an effect on hospital numbers at some point before then? With the older population being prioritised - also the most likely to end up in hospital - we’d expect to see a fast drop than the first wave, wouldn’t we? 

Cheers again for doing the research B1.