Comparing it with the same dates for 2020 (therefore without vaccines) and updating the 20% in London figure from earlier to 25% with todays figures now available; 16th December 2020 we had 15,465 in hospital which was a 15% increase on the previous week, we are on 6,405 and have just seen a 5% increase.
The equivalent next few weeks from last year saw increases of 15%, 27%; 22% and 18% taking us up to 32.6k in hospital and by that time we were back in lockdown. Increases of 25% from this point will get us to 20k by mid to late January - if we do see those sort of figures then we can expect a lockdown again just after Christmas. But that has to be seen as worse case as for England as a whole we are still seeing low increases despite what is happening in London and we have the jabs being rolled out at a terrific rate. The increase from yesterday across England is 47 and seeing as London's increase on its own is 88, it shows that the numbers are still falling elsewhere.
The equivalent next few weeks from last year saw increases of 15%, 27%; 22% and 18% taking us up to 32.6k in hospital and by that time we were back in lockdown. Increases of 25% from this point will get us to 20k by mid to late January - if we do see those sort of figures then we can expect a lockdown again just after Christmas. But that has to be seen as worse case as for England as a whole we are still seeing low increases despite what is happening in London and we have the jabs being rolled out at a terrific rate. The increase from yesterday across England is 47 and seeing as London's increase on its own is 88, it shows that the numbers are still falling elsewhere.