The next 5 years?

[Lillwall's left foot]

PANIC!! Is what brings us to this very unsatisfactory position. Panic caused the clubs strategy to be turned upside down in terms of playing style and transfer policy. The fans had accepted this would be a very short stay but apparently, and somewhat suprisingly, the owners hadn't?

So the owners panicked as they could see the value of the club plummeting and copied what JP did when he got twitchy about losing his nest egg. Just call in this years TP and hey presto your saved. However JP was a much cannier operator and the same trick rarely works twice anyway.

It's difficult to talk about long term plans when you have no idea what the owners will look to do on relegation. Cut their losses? Seems unlikely. Invest heavily to increase the possibility of promotion and then survival? Equally unlikely.

The best we can hope for is that they just sit on their hands and leave it to Dowling and his team to plan again for promotion (I dont know if he's the right man but he's the one in podition). With the squad continuing to be in the rebuilding process it has to be a two year target again for the new manager and that really is as far as we can plan ahead whilst hoping that some lessons have been learnt from this experience ie you can't be competitive in any league without a strong spine, ultra fit players, leadership on the field and full backs! Let's hope so.

[Pragmatist]

There are only 10 managers in the entire English football league who have been in post for four years or longer. The idea of a five year plan is a fairytale. Neither the modern game, nor the match-going fans have the patience for it.

That’s why I said that it should be a rolling 5-year plan and that if the manager goes then somebody from within the system takes over without a full re-set button needed.

[Pragmatist]

We need to realise that money can't help improve our team the sooner the better, because we basically don't have any.
So our scouting - search & selection can be our only route to salvation.
This is where Luke and his large collection of experts need to pay dividends, I look amongst our squad and don't see
a single unknown player who we have purchased that has come through. Maybe Townsend, that's it.
I can remember Luke stating we would not sign anyone who would not improve the team - that was wishful thinking.
How is Luke justifying his position now. Good DOF's are rare, but IMO Luke record is useless - no matter how much his hands have been tied, for me we need a complete clear out of our recruitment dept.
It's not so much as what he has got wrong, it's more of what exactly has he got right?

In addition to Townsend, certainly Ajayi and maybe Furlong improved the team - at Championship level which is where we were when we signed them.

[Swagbaggie]

People know my view of BFS. Most people in this thread seem to hold a similar view now but it is such a shame it came to this before it has been discussed.
Whilst there is a valid argument that Bilic had lost his way since the lockdown and was on very thin ice I still think his sacking was too early. I even understand the view on replacing him in the close season on the grounds we needed a direction change and new impetus.
I would have kept him on though.
By now he may have been gone anyway but he may not, and I venture to say we would be not one point worse off - probably more and the goal difference would not have been so awful either.
He certainly would have had a playing staff that were playing for him on the evidence of his last games and the chances of us retaining the good ones for another push in The Champs was much greater.
I think many of our best players will be gone next season.
Johnson will stay in the Prem with somebody, and Pereira will do likewise or move abroad.
Diangana I think will go too.
This is water under the bridge now but what is current is the egotistical Charlatan we have in charge now.
Some of the posts on here about this bloke over the last month or so are truly embarrassing IMO.
He was as wrong a choice as a club like ours could make and never an answer for any type of question let alone a plan..
This isn't the days of Bolton when dodgy dealings could get you some stars in.
We haven't got the money for a start.
What we needed was a manager who will buy for the future and develop our youth to give us any chance. In the mean time he needed to be capable of building a relationship with the current team not a self interested bigot.
This old journeyman nonsense is destined to failure and what the owners of our club were thinking is unfathomable.
An example is Diagne.
It is early days to see what he will be like. I expect a bit better than we have but not much. Tellingly we are his 13th club he has played for in 9 different countries! He is 29 so if we buy will have little or no sell on value. The ultimate journeyman and the epitome of a Fat Sam signing.
The biggest thing is the complete mess we are showing ourselves to be in.
I know what people say. They were protecting their investment. In fact they have made us about as unattractive as we could possibly get.
Dinosaur Manager.
Incompetent sporting director.
Old players still on contract.
Some of the better ones not ours and on loan.
The rest of the team shell shocked and confused, the best looking for a trap door out and the youth disillusioned and demoralised.

There are posts on here naming the side for next season and sure that Appleton IS the man AND he will come.
I don't know whether this is naivety or arrogance. It just isn't like that and supporting this club you would think they could learn from experience.
More than a five year plan we need some stability first and we need to get it sorted at the earliest point of the close season because I think we will be closer to a second relegation than an immediate promotion if we don't.

[Pragmatist]

People know my view of BFS. Most people in this thread seem to hold a similar view now but it is such a shame it came to this before it has been discussed.
Whilst there is a valid argument that Bilic had lost his way since the lockdown and was on very thin ice I still think his sacking was too early. I even understand the view on replacing him in the close season on the grounds we needed a direction change and new impetus.
I would have kept him on though.
By now he may have been gone anyway but he may not, and I venture to say we would be not one point worse off - probably more and the goal difference would not have been so awful either.
He certainly would have had a playing staff that were playing for him on the evidence of his last games and the chances of us retaining the good ones for another push in The Champs was much greater.
I think many of our best players will be gone next season.
Johnson will stay in the Prem with somebody, and Pereira will do likewise or move abroad.
Diangana I think will go too.
This is water under the bridge now but what is current is the egotistical Charlatan we have in charge now.
Some of the posts on here about this bloke over the last month or so are truly embarrassing IMO.
He was as wrong a choice as a club like ours could make and never an answer for any type of question let alone a plan..
This isn't the days of Bolton when dodgy dealings could get you some stars in.
We haven't got the money for a start.
What we needed was a manager who will buy for the future and develop our youth to give us any chance. In the mean time we needed one capable of building a relationship with the current team not a self interested bigot.
This old journeyman nonsense is destined to failure and what the owners of our club were thinking is unfathomable.
An example is Diagne.
It is early days to see what he will be like. I expect a bit better than we have but not much. Tellingly we are his 13th club he has played for in 9 different countries! He is 29 so if we buy will have little or no sell on value. The ultimate journeyman and the epitome of a Fat Sam signing.
The biggest thing is the complete mess we are showing ourselves to be in.
I know what people say. They were protecting their investment. In fact they have made us about as unattractive as we could possibly get.
Dinosaur Manager.
Incompetent sporting director.
Old players still on contract.
Some of the better ones not ours and on loan.
The rest of the team shell shocked and confused, the best looking for a trap door out and the youth disillusioned and demoralised.

There are posts on here naming the side for next season and sure that Appleton IS the man AND he will come.
I don't know whether this is naivety or arrogance. It just isn't like that and supporting this club you would think they could learn from experience.
More than a five year plan we need some stability first and we need to get it sorted at the earliest point of the close season because I think we will be closer to a second relegation than an immediate promotion if we don't.

Why is Diagne a bad signing?  There was no money to buy anybody, so a loan makes perfect sense.  Where else were we going to get a striker from? And we have the benefit of an option to buy, no obligation. Perfect in our situation. 

Diangana won’t be going anywhere.  We wouldn’t get £5m back on our investment based on this year’s form.

If Johnstone and Pereira go then fine - there’s £30m towards rebuilding the squad. No problem.  Why would be heading for a second relegation? There’s zero reason to suggest that.  We have no debt. We aren’t like any of the clubs who have gone down hamstrung by huge debts.

We are nearly always going to rely on loans.  That’s the way it is these days. It’s the only way to compete and the alternative is to be tied into too many long contracts like HRK, Phillips and Livermore and Gibbs.

Bilic in my view should have gone in the summer if he wasn’t going to sign a new contract. Then we’d have had a different manager to Sam now.  Did I want him? No.  Do I want him next season if in the Championship?  No.  But that’s what short-termism causes.

[Hopalong]

Whoever we appoint as our next manager should have ka minimum target of getting promoted within 2 years.

But then what? Whatever squad we may go up with would struggle the next year unless there was a huge cash injection. In the absence of that, we’d be straight back in a relegation battle and we’d probably sack the manager and start again. It’s madness. 

Our next manager needs to be a proven coach, capable of getting the best out of players and making them better. He’s also got to be a motivator, good enough to get an extra 10% out of players (like a Dyche or Wilder did last year). He needs to have the ability to bring through Academy players and turn them into Premier League players. And he needs to have a strong international scouting network, because we simply can’t afford to compete in the Premier League transfer market and there’s far better value abroad.

Above all, we need to provide the next manager with the right mandate. Getting relegated from the Premier League will not cost him his job - he will be given the opportunity to get us straight back up (like Farke, and I suspect like Wilder and Parker, and probably Potter or Dyche). Being relegated is not a failure - we are a top 16-25 ranked club. Our size and stature is one of a club which will never be secure in the Premier League. Over a 5-year period the minimum expectation should be to have either 2 or 3 seasons in the Premier League.

Maybe that expectation changes if we land the right sort of major backer. Let’s assume that we don’t.

Let’s develop a style. Let’s have an Ashworth-type Director of Football linking the playing, coaching, scouting and academy. Let’s re-establish our DNA and get in proven past players who will reinforce that.

So let’s look at names for a shortlist. Appleton unquestionably. Paul Cook. Eddie Howe but I doubt he will come and I don’t think he’s quite the right fit. Would love Steven Gerrard but he’s destined for the Premier League. Steve Cooper from Swansea? Not sure. Nigel Pearson with Craig Shakespeare? Wouldn’t be the worst option but Pearson and longevity do not go well together. Appleton or Cook really stand out to me as the top candidates.

Assistants? I’d sure love to see Brunty and Jimmy involved. Darren Fletcher possibly. All a good link with Appleton. Scharner also in the mix. 

Finding the right DoF is a massive challenge. Good ones are not easy to find. Thinking caps needed. 

Let’s get our club back. But stop the short-term knee jerk thinking. We need a clear and proper rolling 5-year plan.

Might be left field but I would give the job to Enzo Maresca.  He's destined for big things and it would be great if it was with us.

[BS3Baggie]

Whoever we appoint as our next manager should have ka minimum target of getting promoted within 2 years.

But then what? Whatever squad we may go up with would struggle the next year unless there was a huge cash injection. In the absence of that, we’d be straight back in a relegation battle and we’d probably sack the manager and start again. It’s madness. 

Our next manager needs to be a proven coach, capable of getting the best out of players and making them better. He’s also got to be a motivator, good enough to get an extra 10% out of players (like a Dyche or Wilder did last year). He needs to have the ability to bring through Academy players and turn them into Premier League players. And he needs to have a strong international scouting network, because we simply can’t afford to compete in the Premier League transfer market and there’s far better value abroad.

Above all, we need to provide the next manager with the right mandate. Getting relegated from the Premier League will not cost him his job - he will be given the opportunity to get us straight back up (like Farke, and I suspect like Wilder and Parker, and probably Potter or Dyche). Being relegated is not a failure - we are a top 16-25 ranked club. Our size and stature is one of a club which will never be secure in the Premier League. Over a 5-year period the minimum expectation should be to have either 2 or 3 seasons in the Premier League.

Maybe that expectation changes if we land the right sort of major backer. Let’s assume that we don’t.

Let’s develop a style. Let’s have an Ashworth-type Director of Football linking the playing, coaching, scouting and academy. Let’s re-establish our DNA and get in proven past players who will reinforce that.

So let’s look at names for a shortlist. Appleton unquestionably. Paul Cook. Eddie Howe but I doubt he will come and I don’t think he’s quite the right fit. Would love Steven Gerrard but he’s destined for the Premier League. Steve Cooper from Swansea? Not sure. Nigel Pearson with Craig Shakespeare? Wouldn’t be the worst option but Pearson and longevity do not go well together. Appleton or Cook really stand out to me as the top candidates.

Assistants? I’d sure love to see Brunty and Jimmy involved. Darren Fletcher possibly. All a good link with Appleton. Scharner also in the mix. 

Finding the right DoF is a massive challenge. Good ones are not easy to find. Thinking caps needed. 

Let’s get our club back. But stop the short-term knee jerk thinking. We need a clear and proper rolling 5-year plan.

---

Good post, Pragmatist. Fully agree.

[baggpuss]

There are only 10 managers in the entire English football league who have been in post for four years or longer. The idea of a five year plan is a fairytale. Neither the modern game, nor the match-going fans have the patience for it.

I don't think anyone is advocating a 5 year managerial plan, more ensuring the structure of the club doesn't get ripped up every 18 months so that when the inevitable managerial changes have to happen, there's the minimum amount of financial and structural impact. 

In an ideal world you have a DOF who is responsible for the club vision... a 5 year plan to move the club from being a top half Championship side to one that is regularly clear of relegation in the PL whilst playing a certain brand of football.

The DoF oversees scouting, youth and medical departments. The club then fills those posts with long term employees with clear, long term strategies... ie: X% of players in the first team squad are home grown, X amount of minutes/appearances etc, a remit to monitor and recruit from X, Y and Z markets with certain parameters. 

The DOF is then responsible for ensuring we have a list of targets for all key playing and coaching positions that suit the style we plan to play. This style is then cascaded down through the youth systems, and relationships are forged with managers / clubs who play similar styles of football to ensure loan moves are most suitable for our young players. 

When head coaches are recruited, they're allowed to bring in 2 members of staff to support their ideals but from the outset of the interview (and monitoring phases) they will be made aware of the structure they'll be expected to work within.

Ashworth made all this a reality, and had a innate ability to find managers with slightly different skill sets that would fit the exact role we needed (hence the jobs done by RDM, Roy and Clark).

Of course, none of this works when the owner wants to sell at all costs and is desperately trying to maximise the value of his asset. 

I do think Dowling is trying to do as much of the above as possible but has his hands tied behind his back by his Chinese masters. The youth system overhaul, hiring Slav, and our recruitment last summer was in the most part excellent, we just lost our way this summer and plumping for Fat Sam is the epitome of a short term panic move. When we drop Dowling will need to step up and show he has the smarts to turn this shitstorm around, but the loss of Jenkins means I very much doubt Lai, Li and Ken will be as receptive to the changes we need to make to be successful (and ultimately realise the value Lai wants to sell for)

Most of these "parameters" will fly out of the window as soon as results drop. Look at the abuse our "home-grown" players have received this season. Likewise, if our structure is deemed to be putting off a better manager, howls of outrage will soon follow.

We did indeed lose our way in the summer, not least because the Head Coach and DoF clearly had a massive difference of opinion, greatly to the detriment of the team structure and it's precisely that kind of unforeseen circumstance which makes maintaining any long term plan difficult. Can you imagine the howls if we'd sacked Slav in summer, which under the DoF is King vision, we should have done. 

Ashworth did indeed do an excellent job, though he's not done much at Brighton considering all the money they've spent. Maybe we need to stop pining for something which has passed. How many other clubs of our size have a successful DoF model? 

Not sure I agree with the opening paragraph Squid; this season we had the lowest budget in the division and the odds would always suggest we'd be finishing in the bottom 3. The departure of Bilic was more due to the relationship breakdown between Dowling and him, and the impact that had on our summer recruitment as you've rightly pointed out. Majority of our fans expected and accepted relegation before the season started, I'd argue the lack of a clear goal and any communication to that end is breeding the majority of the frustration - when we take a step back for example, the club has got more right than wrong in the last 2 years or so since we went down (look at Stoke or Huddersfield for example!) but we seem to be convinced we're one massive clusterfuck - when in reality we've got a good nucleus of young players, an academy which is producing first team players and have managed to attract some big names off and on the field despite budget constraints.

I'm not sure sacking Slav in the summer would have been deemed as lunatic as you make out - we'd limped over the line and had we dropped into the playoffs I imagine he'd have gone anyway... and had we made it clear that the plan was to build a young side with a view to bounce back (when it was clear Slav would be going this summer coming anyway) or that we felt we needed a more pragmatic survival at all costs style, it would have been understood. Let's face it, as soon as a couple of results go your way the majority of fans swing.... FFS we were signing Pulis and Pardiola's names at one point... not to mention the circlejerk Sam recieved after the point at City and the Wolv3-2 win!

Ashworth hasn't been in the chair at Brighton for long in DoF terms, but lets look at the progress made... they're 7-8 points clear of danger, playing far better football than under Hughton and are a striker away from being in the top half IMO. Part of Brighton's losses have been due to not developing/selling players through Hughton's preference for experience, Potter on the other hand has embraced their youth system (White, Alazate) and been improving players like Bissouma and Lamptey. Similarly, their spend this summer was significantly lower and Ashworth's remit has been recruitnig young players and developing a scouting and loan network to develop them - they've got over 30 players out on loan across the UK and Europe.

These systems take time to develop and build due to player contracts and the fact it takes a season to really see whether an initiative is showing any measures of success or not!

---

Whoever we appoint as our next manager should have ka minimum target of getting promoted within 2 years.

But then what? Whatever squad we may go up with would struggle the next year unless there was a huge cash injection. In the absence of that, we’d be straight back in a relegation battle and we’d probably sack the manager and start again. It’s madness. 

Our next manager needs to be a proven coach, capable of getting the best out of players and making them better. He’s also got to be a motivator, good enough to get an extra 10% out of players (like a Dyche or Wilder did last year). He needs to have the ability to bring through Academy players and turn them into Premier League players. And he needs to have a strong international scouting network, because we simply can’t afford to compete in the Premier League transfer market and there’s far better value abroad.

Above all, we need to provide the next manager with the right mandate. Getting relegated from the Premier League will not cost him his job - he will be given the opportunity to get us straight back up (like Farke, and I suspect like Wilder and Parker, and probably Potter or Dyche). Being relegated is not a failure - we are a top 16-25 ranked club. Our size and stature is one of a club which will never be secure in the Premier League. Over a 5-year period the minimum expectation should be to have either 2 or 3 seasons in the Premier League.

Maybe that expectation changes if we land the right sort of major backer. Let’s assume that we don’t.

Let’s develop a style. Let’s have an Ashworth-type Director of Football linking the playing, coaching, scouting and academy. Let’s re-establish our DNA and get in proven past players who will reinforce that.

So let’s look at names for a shortlist. Appleton unquestionably. Paul Cook. Eddie Howe but I doubt he will come and I don’t think he’s quite the right fit. Would love Steven Gerrard but he’s destined for the Premier League. Steve Cooper from Swansea? Not sure. Nigel Pearson with Craig Shakespeare? Wouldn’t be the worst option but Pearson and longevity do not go well together. Appleton or Cook really stand out to me as the top candidates.

Assistants? I’d sure love to see Brunty and Jimmy involved. Darren Fletcher possibly. All a good link with Appleton. Scharner also in the mix. 

Finding the right DoF is a massive challenge. Good ones are not easy to find. Thinking caps needed. 

Let’s get our club back. But stop the short-term knee jerk thinking. We need a clear and proper rolling 5-year plan.

I agree with most of this. I'm also with Allardyce to an extent, in that we need to look at the Non-EU market as well as the UK one in terms of scouting and links etc. Turkey and Africa for example. Re style of play and principles, linking across all footballing levels is the way forward. Allardyce may or may not agree, but if he's not here next season (I'd back him getting us back up tbf), the next manager needs to. 

We need to get players in with some experience, the right ability and mentality who can bring those who are wavering over the line, moving forward. Quite a few will go, but these would be players on the periphery, bar Periera (maybe ) and Johnstone. We also need players who can actually compete at both levels(PL & Chump). I thought we had players who might step up, but few have. The biggest mistake was not signing a few more similar to Snodgrass etc. Scharner, Olsson and MaCcaulay were that figure in the dressing room, 10 years ago. And it helped. We need those type of characters in the spine, whoever is manager. Then base the flair off that. We've lacked leadership and Bilic didn't really address that. 

We may never be secure in the PL, but over time that needs to be the target for a club like Albion. And that is realistic. Suffering relegations over a number of years will possibly see support drift away. We have rebuilt our support base to 25-30k. Let's keep it. and enlarge it a little if possible. Look at Leicester as a model. 

Moving on, this is the way. All successful organizations base a planning around strategy over time. It requires some flexibility, but if the framework is there, then knee jerk reactions do not occur as often.

Unfortunately that would require us finding several hundred million quid via a benevolent owner!

I just don't think we are a Premiership Club in this modern era!