The Fosun Bubble...

[backsidebaggie]

Crowds will dwindle or are dwindling at lots of clubs. Its just to expensive to simply watch football and not expect to see promotion, cup wins titles etc. Kids today want to support a glory team, much like a fashion and cant stand the stick from school/workmates about supporting a team that isn't doing well. I will be interested whether long term crowds will really return in vast numbers long term. Have youngsters during lockdown shifted their interest into Fifa rather than watching a game.

 Who would invest with that uncertainty? 

Any company/owner who buys any business is looking for a payback (5years?)
Wolves havent achieved much more than we did when we finished at our best, yet spent far more, Villa the same. Football clubs are to much of an uncertainty unless its owned by a owner who simply wants to burn money.

According to John Richardson's Can We Have Our Football Back, attendances in Leagues One and Two have actually grown by 10% over the last ten years.

However, I agree that investing in a football is generally a mug's game. Unless you are into money laundering...

I did mean to mention that, yes I think its because some of us who just enjoy a saturday afternoon game of football and a pint are fed up with the pressure of relegation and promotion, the expectation of buying players that we dont, monday night games, VAR etc, looking at results all on the same day. TV has and will kill saturday footy. 

I often thought myself about just going to watch Kiddy or Walsall.

Wouldn't blame you. I'd recommend conference level stuff. Solihull Moors is cracking too.

[Remi_Moses]

Crowds will dwindle or are dwindling at lots of clubs. Its just to expensive to simply watch football and not expect to see promotion, cup wins titles etc. Kids today want to support a glory team, much like a fashion and cant stand the stick from school/workmates about supporting a team that isn't doing well. I will be interested whether long term crowds will really return in vast numbers long term. Have youngsters during lockdown shifted their interest into Fifa rather than watching a game.

 Who would invest with that uncertainty? 

Any company/owner who buys any business is looking for a payback (5years?)
Wolves havent achieved much more than we did when we finished at our best, yet spent far more, Villa the same. Football clubs are to much of an uncertainty unless its owned by a owner who simply wants to burn money.

According to John Richardson's Can We Have Our Football Back, attendances in Leagues One and Two have actually grown by 10% over the last ten years.

However, I agree that investing in a football is generally a mug's game. Unless you are into money laundering...

I did mean to mention that, yes I think its because some of us who just enjoy a saturday afternoon game of football and a pint are fed up with the pressure of relegation and promotion, the expectation of buying players that we dont, monday night games, VAR etc, looking at results all on the same day. TV has and will kill saturday footy. 

I often thought myself about just going to watch Kiddy or Walsall.

Wouldn't blame you. I'd recommend conference level stuff. Solihull Moors is cracking too.

Redditch get a few die hard "football" fans i'm told? Not sure about the likes of Stourbridge / Lye / Halesowen anymore.

[Cunningham1979]

There were a lot of rumours around Fosun's involvement in Wolves being primary to curry favour ahead of HS2 contracts... I've no idea how that turned out for them, but I imagine the now reduced opportunity to win lucrative business combined with Chinese clampdown on external investment and the effects of the pandemic on their core global tourism and entertainment business means they need to rethink their spending on an ever increasing vanity project such as the dogheads.

The £350m+ they've pumped in already has given them a competitive advantage to play from and as has been said, in Neves and Neto in particular (and Jimenez when he returns) they have some highly saleable assets which when sold, should give them a warchest which if invested correctly will enable them to continue being competitive in the PL in the same way clubs like Southampton and Palace have been able to establish themselves above the drop zone.

Whilst this doesn't mean they will be doomed to relegation, it does mean they will now have to spend some time looking over their shoulder as oppose to looking upwards, as as has Rich has said, their value is currently incredibly high and any prospective buyer will find themselves having to pay c£300m for a club with a tinpot stadium in a low affluence region of the UK, an ageing squad and a need to continue to invest just to maintain their current standing... this is only an attractive proposition to a vanity buyer and they are few and far between.

I suppose the Dings are now a victim of their own (relative) success in the last few years. When Fosun took over and them struggling meant it was for a low price, now they're doing better the club value has shot up its difficult for anyone to come in and make them worth any more than they currently are. 

Leicester are probably the role model to aim for but it took an incredible season to transform them from also rans to a realistic top 4 team, not sure how much their owners have chucked at it and how much has come from their league/champions league successes... they've had some top youth players come through too.

Certainly something in that... the worse you do, the more desired as an asset you tend to be. If the worst did happen and we were to be stuck in the Championship (or worse) for a while we'd be more likely to find an owner willing to invest like Fosun... We have a recent history of being established in the PL and seeing our value significantly raised, and we have the infrastructure to compete at that level... Unfortunately whilst we're at the top table, we're more likely to attract owners like Burnley's who need to find a way of extracting cash in the short term instead of working towards a future sale bonanza!

Though, the lower you go, and the lower your price, the more chancers can afford you!

Think Leicester's owners spent a LOT of money to get them promoted in the first place, but they invested very well off the field too, with massive amounts going into data and recruitment and their youth teams which they're now reaping the benefits of. Amazing what can be done at a club no bigger than ourselves when the right ownership making sensible decisions with a little bit of investment combines with a bit of luck (or in their case, a HUGE slice of it!)

Leicester have just moved into their swish new training ground as well, cost £95m.

Ignoring the ground expansion debate, I'm surprised we've not at least planned to build a new training ground as the one we have is pretty small with limited expansion as far as I'm aware. I think we lease some of the land from Aston uni as well?

Not sure about that.

I thought we had top notch training facilities?

The training facility is ok but quite small with little room for expansion. Leicester have extraordinary facilities for the first team, U23’s, Academy, Women’s all
On one site. Wolves have a similar albeit less impressive set up at Compton

[Birdman1811]

They were top notch when built.

[Kit Kat Chunky]

Indeed.

However as shown in the past, in football it can be very risky business.

Most banks have had their fingers burned lending to football clubs. I could tell you some horror stories.

I've heard some.

It's why I've never been a supporter of us using much debt in the hopes of staying up, when really all it does it makes me harder to bounce back if you do go down.

I've known banks having to continue to support clubs, for fear of having damage to buildings and staff. A mate of mine who was Head of Credit at a bank was receiving death threats from the fans of one club.

It’s not surprising, you only have to look at the kind of abuse owners get when they’re still pumping millions in to keep teams afloat.

Understand why banks would be reticent to loan to football clubs, but I’m surprised more aren’t given the likes of Maquerie seem to be making 10-15% on what they lend!

It depends how you structure it. Lending against future income streams (with the security of a parachute to repay you), or a transfer fee as Maquerie do is relatively safe for the lender. When you go beyond that, you are asking for trouble.

[Pragmatist]

It's called Securitisation. David Bowie did it with his future record sales, and most residential mortgages are funded this way.

Indeed.

However as shown in the past, in football it can be very risky business.

Most banks have had their fingers burned lending to football clubs. I could tell you some horror stories.

I've heard some.

It's why I've never been a supporter of us using much debt in the hopes of staying up, when really all it does it makes me harder to bounce back if you do go down.

I've known banks having to continue to support clubs, for fear of having damage to buildings and staff. A mate of mine who was Head of Credit at a bank was receiving death threats from the fans of one club.

Absolutely correct.  If you are one of the high street banks who have lent to the local club and have to pull the plug on the club, the bank would be ostracised in that community.  That's the main reason why the high street banks aren't interested.   It is very high risk lending these days - the extra interest rate margins to reflect that risk attract the hedge funds and debt funds as specialist lenders.

[baggiebloke]

I suppose the Dings are now a victim of their own (relative) success in the last few years. When Fosun took over and them struggling meant it was for a low price, now they're doing better the club value has shot up its difficult for anyone to come in and make them worth any more than they currently are. 

Leicester are probably the role model to aim for but it took an incredible season to transform them from also rans to a realistic top 4 team, not sure how much their owners have chucked at it and how much has come from their league/champions league successes... they've had some top youth players come through too.

Certainly something in that... the worse you do, the more desired as an asset you tend to be. If the worst did happen and we were to be stuck in the Championship (or worse) for a while we'd be more likely to find an owner willing to invest like Fosun... We have a recent history of being established in the PL and seeing our value significantly raised, and we have the infrastructure to compete at that level... Unfortunately whilst we're at the top table, we're more likely to attract owners like Burnley's who need to find a way of extracting cash in the short term instead of working towards a future sale bonanza!

Though, the lower you go, and the lower your price, the more chancers can afford you!

Think Leicester's owners spent a LOT of money to get them promoted in the first place, but they invested very well off the field too, with massive amounts going into data and recruitment and their youth teams which they're now reaping the benefits of. Amazing what can be done at a club no bigger than ourselves when the right ownership making sensible decisions with a little bit of investment combines with a bit of luck (or in their case, a HUGE slice of it!)

Leicester have just moved into their swish new training ground as well, cost £95m.

Ignoring the ground expansion debate, I'm surprised we've not at least planned to build a new training ground as the one we have is pretty small with limited expansion as far as I'm aware. I think we lease some of the land from Aston uni as well?

Not sure about that.

I thought we had top notch training facilities?

The training facility is ok but quite small with little room for expansion. Leicester have extraordinary facilities for the first team, U23’s, Academy, Women’s all
On one site. Wolves have a similar albeit less impressive set up at Compton

I've been inside the Dings training base once and ours a few times. It would be interesting to see Leicester's.

[yeoman lai]

I think I'll keep the powder dry on this one, having convinced myself, via certain posts on this dump, that the seals were about to fade away and die, pre-covid.

It's the hope that kills.

[Hopalong]

Certainly something in that... the worse you do, the more desired as an asset you tend to be. If the worst did happen and we were to be stuck in the Championship (or worse) for a while we'd be more likely to find an owner willing to invest like Fosun... We have a recent history of being established in the PL and seeing our value significantly raised, and we have the infrastructure to compete at that level... Unfortunately whilst we're at the top table, we're more likely to attract owners like Burnley's who need to find a way of extracting cash in the short term instead of working towards a future sale bonanza!

Though, the lower you go, and the lower your price, the more chancers can afford you!

Think Leicester's owners spent a LOT of money to get them promoted in the first place, but they invested very well off the field too, with massive amounts going into data and recruitment and their youth teams which they're now reaping the benefits of. Amazing what can be done at a club no bigger than ourselves when the right ownership making sensible decisions with a little bit of investment combines with a bit of luck (or in their case, a HUGE slice of it!)

Leicester have just moved into their swish new training ground as well, cost £95m.

Ignoring the ground expansion debate, I'm surprised we've not at least planned to build a new training ground as the one we have is pretty small with limited expansion as far as I'm aware. I think we lease some of the land from Aston uni as well?

Not sure about that.

I thought we had top notch training facilities?

The training facility is ok but quite small with little room for expansion. Leicester have extraordinary facilities for the first team, U23’s, Academy, Women’s all
On one site. Wolves have a similar albeit less impressive set up at Compton

I've been inside the Dings training base once and ours a few times. It would be interesting to see Leicester's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvZDP7N2uQc

[Fido]

I think I'll keep the powder dry on this one, having convinced myself, via certain posts on this dump, that the seals were about to fade away and die, pre-covid.

It's the hope that kills.

+1